21 August 2018

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Foresight analysis for world agricultural markets (2020) - AG2020


"Are we approaching the beginning of the end of European agriculture? Or are we moving to a post-production era where alternatives to industrial farming are increasingly financially attractive?"

How can EU's Common Agricultural Policy be proactive to climate change and alternative outcomes of WTO negotiations?

How can the markets respond to increased demands on food safety and environmental sustainability, and the emergence of new technologies?

Putting these questions and others into perspective is the focus of the EU project AG2020. Using novel foresight methods, including policy scenarios and "images of the future", AG2020 has integrates 13 international partners in order to evaluate how the Common Agricultural Policy could look like and how EU can get to favourable outcomes.

How does future agriculture look like and how do we get there

EU agriculture is under pressure from several sides including increased international competition, climate change, environmental requirements, the accession of new EU members and changing subsidies. Rather than passively awaiting developments, AG2020 - "Foresight analysis of world agriculture market 2020 " will proactively describe alternative futures for world agriculture market and corresponding policy scenarios that will describe how politicians, civil servants, farmers and other actors can influence the development in a desired direction.

Project Coordinator

Kristian Borch

Technical University of Denmark
Department of Management Engineering
Technical University of Denmark
Produktionstorvet, Building 426
DK-2800, Lyngby

E-mail:krbo@man.dtu.dk

AG2020 Scientific reports




General Assessment of Alternative Policy Scenarios

This report on "General Assessment of Alternative Policy Scenarios" aims at presenting the process - backasting framework - and the results - backasting policy scenarios - of the AG2020 Project that may support the process of developing appropriate policy instruments and paths for the EU agriculture in 2020.

Find more public reports under the menu item Publications

A journal article about the major findings in AG2020 is in prepartion




Images of the Future on TV


During the last four years the consortium of the AG2020 EU project provided EU policymakers a detailed research basis of "Images of the Future" to decide upon a new agricultural policy to be established by the end of 2013. On board for most of the process has been a group of journalists and media experts that with continual input from the researchers have produced a documentary series on the current and future European agriculture.

The five tv programs illustrate the consequence of many casual relationship between development factors that are both easy and difficult to control, while showing how these factors influence the farmer, the consumer, rural areas and politicians.

The problems and dilemmas of present and future European agriculture is presented in 5 themes in 19 different
web films.
  1. Europe's new wine map - 4 webfilms
  2. Vanishing villages- 4 webfilms
  3. Will the pigs fit in- 4 webfilms
  4. Meat-eater's Dilemma- 3 webfilms
  5. Why milk is so complicated?- 4 webfilms
Each theme is discussed by AG2020 scientist in a "full version" combining sections from the web film and round
table debates
Programme 1 of 5: AG 2020 - IMAGES OF THE FUTURE: Europe's new Wine Map - the debate

... shows us the necessity of relating to the current and future climate changes and their effect on agriculture within the EU. The program shows how the changes, that are already taking place, are affecting farmers, although differently depending on their geographic location within the EU.

All material is available under the menu item AG2020 on TV

Watch the movies at Podcast.au in high resolution here


Read about the main messages of all 5 TV programs here

Read more about the programs, credit and contacts in english or, danish


This project is co-funded by:

The European Commission, Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development
Promilleafgiftsfonden for Landbrug
Film Fyn
DR Danish National Television
Forskningsministeriet
Indenrigsministeriets Landdistriktsmidler
Aarhus Universitet
Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, DTU

Web site provided by Aarhus University, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Agroecology and Environment.
Report technical problems to webmaster: Jens Grønbech Hansen.
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